BigQuery · panaapp-16ce3 · bankapplication + transactionfeed + cardorder · Global users only
Couriers en Colombia →All-time (2025: 7,715 users · 2026 YTD: 4,927 users) · 6,524 approved users have never transacted · 257 active-90d users have no card · shipping = $60 DHL
| Shipping price | Est. adoption (active users) | Cards from warm base | Ongoing / mo (new actives) | vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $60today | 5.2% | 14 (already done) | ~1–2 / mo | baseline |
| $30 | ~20% | ~54 in burst | ~8–12 / mo | 6–8× more |
| $20 | ~35% | ~95 in burst | ~15–20 / mo | 10–12× more |
| $10 | ~50% | ~129 in burst | ~20–28 / mo | 14–18× more |
| $0free | ~70% | ~180 in burst | ~30–40 / mo | 20–25× more |
New active Colombian users per month ≈ ~40–55 (based on 161 active-30d growing from 623 total ever-transacted over ~15 months). At a lower price, a % of those convert to card holders each month. Additionally, the 609 dormant transacted users are a secondary wave — some will reactivate when they see the card price dropped, adding a slower second burst over months 2–6.
| Cards per batch (N) | Rain per card | Coordinadora (flat) | Total Bogotá | Total resto del país |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 (current demand) | $7.07 | $6.00 / $7.00 | $13.07 | $14.07 |
| 25 | $3.96 | $6.00 / $7.00 | $9.96 | $10.96 |
| 50 | $1.98 | $6.00 / $7.00 | $7.98 | $8.98 |
| 100 | $0.99 | $6.00 / $7.00 | $6.99 | $7.99 |
| 150 | $0.66 | $6.00 / $7.00 | $6.66 | $7.66 |
| 200 (batch max) | $0.50 | $6.00 / $7.00 | $6.50 | $7.50 |
Rain charges a flat $99 per batch of 1–200 cards shipped to Colombia; Coordinadora then distributes locally (UltraLight tier, ≤0.5 lb: $6 Bogotá / $7 resto del país — Bogotá incl. Soacha, Chía, Cajicá).
Rain's $99 batch fee is charged on top of taxes and customs (aduana) for each shipment into Colombia. That amount is not yet known — it must be confirmed before quoting a final landed cost per card.
| Cards per batch (N) | Rain per card | Servientrega (flat) | Total Urbano (Bogotá) | Total Nacional/Capital (resto) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 (current demand) | $7.07 | $2.56 / $5.55 | $9.63 | $12.62 |
| 25 | $3.96 | $2.56 / $5.55 | $6.52 | $9.51 |
| 50 | $1.98 | $2.56 / $5.55 | $4.54 | $7.53 |
| 100 | $0.99 | $2.56 / $5.55 | $3.55 | $6.54 |
| 150 | $0.66 | $2.56 / $5.55 | $3.22 | $6.21 |
| 200 (batch max) | $0.50 | $2.56 / $5.55 | $3.06 | $6.05 |
Rain per-card cost is unchanged from the Coordinadora scenario ($99 flat per batch of 1–200 cards). Servientrega rates: origin Bogotá, COD, entrega normal, kilo inicial — Urbano (within Bogotá) $8,200 COP / Nacional-Capital (other major cities) $17,800 COP, converted at TRM ≈ $3,206.18 COP/USD (Jul 30, 2026). Same tax + aduana caveat above applies — not included in these totals.
For cards specifically: drop to $15–20 via local courier. The 257 active-90d users without a card are warm leads — at $20 you convert ~35% (~90 users) immediately. Ongoing, you add ~15–20 card holders/month from new actives. Card holders generate 3–5× more TPV than app-only users, so this compounds.
The bigger lever across all of LatAm: DR has 44k applicants and 114 cards, MX has 11k and 15 cards — same suppressed demand pattern everywhere. A regional card strategy addresses tens of thousands of approved users who are already in the funnel.
Data: BigQuery · panaapp-16ce3.planetscale_pana · bankapplication + transactionfeed (status='Settled') + cardorder · Jul 9, 2026 · Global users only, countrycode='CO'. Adoption rates at lower prices estimated from LatAm fintech benchmarks. "Active" = has at least one Settled transaction in the period. Ongoing monthly card rate based on new active users per month (~40–55 est.) × adoption rate at given price.