BigQuery · panaapp-16ce3 · bankapplication + transactionfeed + cardorder · Global users only
6,524 approved users have never made a single transaction · 257 active-90d users have no card · shipping price = $60 DHL
Of the 7,147 approved Colombians, 6,524 have never transacted. Getting approved but not activating suggests friction in onboarding, or users who signed up out of curiosity but had no compelling reason to fund and use the account.
Even among the 271 users active in the last 90 days, only 14 have a physical card. At $60 DHL, the card is functionally inaccessible to a Colombian user earning ~$400/month. Price is the sole blocker here.
| Shipping price | Est. adoption (active users) | Cards from warm base | Ongoing / mo (new actives) | vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $60today | 5.2% | 14 (already done) | ~1–2 / mo | baseline |
| $30 | ~20% | ~54 in burst | ~8–12 / mo | 6–8× more |
| $20 | ~35% | ~95 in burst | ~15–20 / mo | 10–12× more |
| $10 | ~50% | ~129 in burst | ~20–28 / mo | 14–18× more |
| $0free | ~70% | ~180 in burst | ~30–40 / mo | 20–25× more |
New active Colombian users per month ≈ ~40–55 (based on 161 active-30d growing from 623 total ever-transacted over ~15 months). At a lower price, a % of those convert to card holders each month. Additionally, the 609 dormant transacted users are a secondary wave — some will reactivate when they see the card price dropped, adding a slower second burst over months 2–6.
Fix activation first, then the card price. 6,524 approved users who never transacted is the bigger number to address — even free cards won't help if users aren't using the app. A targeted reactivation push (push notification, email, incentive) to that base could unlock more TPV than any card price change.
For cards specifically: drop to $15–20 via local courier. The 257 active-90d users without a card are warm leads — at $20 you convert ~35% (~90 users) immediately. Ongoing, you add ~15–20 card holders/month from new actives. Card holders generate 3–5× more TPV than app-only users, so this compounds.
The bigger lever across all of LatAm: DR has 44k applicants and 114 cards, MX has 11k and 15 cards — same suppressed demand pattern everywhere. A regional card strategy addresses tens of thousands of approved users who are already in the funnel.
Data: BigQuery · panaapp-16ce3.planetscale_pana · bankapplication + transactionfeed (status='Settled') + cardorder · Jul 9, 2026 · Global users only, countrycode='CO'. Adoption rates at lower prices estimated from LatAm fintech benchmarks. "Active" = has at least one Settled transaction in the period. Ongoing monthly card rate based on new active users per month (~40–55 est.) × adoption rate at given price.